Short China, I don't think so

In this age of media, we average consumers frequently turn into our own opinion leaders in many a topics, including world economy, American politics and with more involvement as well as self-assurance, local economy. So I read from a popular Chinese magazine some recent discussion in the global media, if there is such a thing, about new debates of China economy.

James Chanos said short China, eh, but I don’t think so. Could an economist, or, a hedge-fund manager, in this case, really be able to read, understand and even predict an economy without going into the field? Jim Rogers is known for pro-China economy, but he really fly in here and he really wait in a bank to find out if it’s worth investing. I remember watching the news clip of this incident and was highly amused – the famous investor was just another short, balding, mid-aged man, lining up in a queue, frustrated with the slow-moving line and baffled by the complicated requirements on the part of the customer for a simple request. He couldn’t get his requested service on that day in that bank branch, in fact, in that city – an experience all too familiar for the millions of customers of China’s powerful stated-owned (and now stock market-listed) banks.

Jim Rogers thumps down on the Chinese banks, but not the China economy, at least, not yet. In fact, if you have been to Hong Kong over the Christmas holiday and seen the lines outside LV and Gucci stores; if you have recently tried to book a 5-star hotel room in Sanya for the coming Chinese New Year holiday, you wouldn’t think China economy is going to a flake, anytime soon.

My friend stayed in Shenzhen for two months and took a lot of taxis. He likes to chat with taxi-drivers, asking them where are they from, how’re their folks doing back in the inland towns and villages, what’s their plan for the kids. Then he said China economy is going to be fine for the foreseeable future. All the taxi drivers are hopeful and feeling generally good about their lives, there has been many changes back at home, a lot of development, and they’re all going to send their kids to university.

Back in Shanghai, there has been some highly-publicized over-the-new-year promotion in many competing department stores. It drew hundreds of thousands of shoppers over the New Year ’s Eve and one of the stores scored over one hundred million USD turn-over within 48 hours. While it’s a game requires too much physical and psychological stamina that beyond my own approach, I do find two of my colleagues, not surprisingly, two sales girls (who will never pass any opportunity of a price-off) had bravely participated in that big event and one of them bought one flat-panel TV and one new air-con as well as a bar of gold, the other was the real killer, however, she actually bought eight flat-panel TVs and ten air-cons for the three new homes of her own, her mother’s and her aunt’s!

Bravo my beloved Chinese consumer. With your hard work and high aspiration about life, let the huge ship of China economy keep steaming on, hopefully nobody would be smart or stupid enough, to screw us up.

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